Applications of OA Science
Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecasting System
The Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System (CBEFS) uses a 3-D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model to simulate water quality in the Chesapeake Bay on the eastern seaboard of the continental United States. Through CBEFS, daily real-time nowcasts (current conditions) and 5-day forecasts of environmental conditions in the Chesapeake Bay have been continuously available since 2017.
CBEFS is an entirely automated system that runs in a high-performance-computing environment to provide updated information every 6 hours that includes pH, aragonite saturation state, alkalinity, dissolved oxygen, salinity, water temperature, and hypoxic volume. Visualizations of the forecasts are available through a local institutional website and the MARACOOS Oceans Map portal.
Among its many uses, CBEFS serves as a planning and safety tool for anglers, aquaculturists, resource managers, and other shoreline users who want to better understand and respond to changing conditions in the Bay. The same data that help fishermen locate healthy waters are used by power plants to anticipate sea nettle blooms that could clog their intake systems, or by managers monitoring acidification trends that affect Bay ecology and shellfish aquaculture. This underscores how science-based forecasting tools can directly support the Chesapeake Bay’s communities. By integrating observations, models, and user feedback, CBEFS continues to evolve as a bridge between research and on-the-water decision-making.
Logistics
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Project Leads and Partners for the Acidification aspect of the CBEFS tool include:
Aaron Bever, FlowWest
Pierre St-Laurent, Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Marjy Friedrichs, Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Mid-Atlantic Regional Association of Coastal and Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS)
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Development of the base model used for the CBEFS project began in 2010, with initial forecasts produced in 2017. Annual validation is guaranteed as part of ongoing maintenance.
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The 3D coupled hydrodynamic model uses chemical and biological data from tidal waters. To evaluate the model's usefulness and accuracy, researchers synthesized all available data for the Chesapeake Bay from 1985 - 2025 and use that to continually assess the skill of the model, and improve its skill through various modifications.
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Historical data encompassing OA measurements of various frequencies were incorporated into the development of the model. Annual validation utilizes real-time continuous data produced by buoys and discrete data from bi-monthly cruises that sample 100 stations in the Chesapeake Bay main stem and tributaries on a seasonal basis.
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pH
total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)
total alkalinity (TA)
partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2)
hydrogen ion content ([H+])
calcium carbonate mineral saturation state for aragonite (Ωarag)
calcium carbonate mineral saturation state for calcite (Ωcal)
calcium ion
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The quality of historical pH data is notably not climate-quality, and data collected prior to 1985 was considered too low-quality, thus excluded. Since the launch of the CBEFS tool, all model results are evaluated annually via comparison with independent cruise and mooring data collected over the course of the summers.
Objectives
By using a 3D coupled hydrodynamic-carbon-biogeochemical model, the acidification arm of the CBEFS project aims to maintain short-term forecasts of acidification-related parameters that are of use to end-users in the region, such as shellfish aquaculturists and coastal resource managers.
Additional grant funding for focus groups ensures end-users are involved in the continuing development and design of operational management tools, while partnerships with operational hosts are designed to ensure forecasts are transitioned to operational readiness in a timely and efficient manner.
Model output has already inspired projects that expand the footprint of this work, including local condition report cards, industry dashboards, and biological vulnerability assessments.
Challenges
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A host of factors contribute to notably high spatial and temporal variability in the greater Chesapeake Bay. Watershed inputs from varying biomes bring in very different concentrations of DIC and alkalinity, while tidal cycles can cause significant short-term fluctuations in pH. The model focused on the main stem of the Bay when the project began, but stakeholders have since requested higher spatial resolution of forecasting to better match the spatial scale of use in the Bay. Understanding the high spatial and temporal variabilities related to the Bay's many different tributaries poses unique challenges to increasing forecast resolution to meet end user needs.
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Though various research activities in the Chesapeake Bay have produced an abundance of raw data, monitoring priorities have shifted over time and the region is lacking in direct observations to measure the full carbonate chemistry system. Different species that are affected by acidification may not be sensitive to the same variables; with multiple species of commercial importance across the Bay, stakeholders require information on variables that are most relevant to them. Researchers have developed relationships between parameters to better leverage what data they do have. However, the model falls short of meeting stakeholder needs without direct observations of carbonate chemistry.
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Beyond its initial development, the CBEFS model requires regular validation and improvement, while the user interface requires ongoing maintenance. Securing reliable funding for routine product delivery can be challenging in a funding landscape that continues to prioritize novel projects.