Applications of OA Science
Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecasting System
The Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System (CBEFS), developed by scientists at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science and FlowWest, uses a 3-D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model to simulate water quality in the Chesapeake Bay on the eastern seaboard of the continental United States. Through CBEFS, daily real-time nowcasts (current conditions) and 5-day forecasts of environmental conditions in the Chesapeake Bay have been continuously available since 2017.
CBEFS is an entirely automated system that runs in a high-performance-computing environment to provide updated information every 6 hours that includes multiple water quality variables such as: pH, aragonite saturation state, alkalinity, dissolved oxygen, salinity, water temperature, waves, and the percent chance of encountering sea nettles, vibrio, and harmful algal blooms. Visualizations of the forecasts are available through the CBEFS website as well as a Chesapeake specific version of the MARACOOS Oceans Map portal.
Among its many uses, CBEFS serves as a planning and safety tool for anglers, aquaculturists, resource managers, and other shoreline users who want to better understand and respond to changing conditions in the Bay. The same data that help fishermen locate healthy waters are used by power plants to anticipate sea nettle blooms that could clog their intake systems, and by managers monitoring acidification trends that affect Bay ecology and shellfish aquaculture. This underscores how science-based forecasting tools can directly support the Chesapeake Bay’s communities. By integrating observations, models, and user feedback, CBEFS continues to evolve as a bridge between research and on-the-water decision-making.
Logistics
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Project Leads for the CBEFS tool include:
Marjorie Friedrichs, Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Aaron Bever, FlowWest (formerly of AnchorQEA)
Pierre St-Laurent, Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Project Partners for the CBEFS tool include:Emily Rivest, Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Susanna Musick, Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Karen Hudson, Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Mid-Atlantic Regional Association of Coastal and Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS)
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Development of the base model used for the CBEFS project began in 2010, with initial forecasts produced in 2017. Annual validation is guaranteed as part of ongoing maintenance.
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The 3D coupled model was developed using hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and water quality data regularly collected in Chesapeake Bay tidal waters since 1985 and is not only to provide daily forecasts, but also to support research on how the Chesapeake Bay is changing over time. It is being used to study how acidification is impacted by local actions, such as efforts to reduce nutrient pollution, as well as with larger forces like weather patterns and long-term climate change. This helps us better understand which changes in Bay conditions are linked to management decisions and which are driven by broader environmental change, while also improving knowledge of important issues such as low-oxygen events, warming waters, and acidification.
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Historical data encompassing OA measurements of various frequencies were incorporated into the development of the model. Annual evaluation utilizes real-time continuous data as well as discrete data from monthly cruises that sample 100+ stations throughout the Chesapeake Bay main stem and tributaries. Model skill is continually assessed and improved through targeted modifications as new data continually become available.
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OA observations used to parameterize the model :
pH
total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)
total alkalinity (TA)
partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2)
calcium ion
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Since the launch of the CBEFS tool, all model results are evaluated annually via comparison with independent cruise and mooring data. Real-time visualizations comparing model output with observations are provided on the CBEFS website, allowing end users to evaluate model performance and build confidence in its reliability.
Objectives
By using a 3D coupled hydrodynamic-carbon-biogeochemical model, the acidification arm of the CBEFS project aims to maintain short-term forecasts of acidification-related parameters that are of use to end-users in the region, such as shellfish aquaculturists and coastal resource managers.
Additional grant funding for focus groups ensures end-users are involved in the continuing development and design of the operational tool, while partnerships with operational hosts are designed to ensure forecasts are available with personal guidance and interpretation in a timely and efficient manner.
Model output has already inspired projects that expand the footprint of this work, including local condition report cards, industry dashboards, and biological vulnerability assessments.
Challenges
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A host of factors contribute to notably high spatial and temporal variability throughout the Chesapeake Bay. Watershed inputs from varying biomes bring in very different concentrations of DIC and alkalinity, while tidal cycles can cause significant short-term fluctuations in pH. The model focused on the main stem of the Bay when the project began, but stakeholders have since requested higher spatial resolution of forecasts in the tributaries to better match the scale of their use in the Bay. Understanding the high spatial and temporal variabilities related to the Bay's many different tributaries poses unique challenges to increasing forecast resolution to meet end user needs.
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Though various research activities in the Chesapeake Bay have produced an abundance of raw data, monitoring priorities have shifted over time and the region is lacking in direct observations to measure the full carbonate chemistry system. Different species that are affected by acidification may not be sensitive to the same variables; with multiple species of commercial importance across the Bay, stakeholders require information on variables that are most relevant to them. Researchers have developed relationships between parameters to better leverage what data they do have. However, the model could more fully meet end-user needs if additional direct, real-time observations of carbonate chemistry were available.
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Beyond its initial development, the CBEFS model requires regular evaluation and improvement, while the user interface requires ongoing maintenance. Securing reliable funding for routine product delivery can be challenging in a funding landscape that continues to prioritize novel research projects.